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Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read a sports betting book or any type of sports betting article, what are you going to learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, always tells you to bet the dogs. If everyone bets on dogs, are the odds of the favorites too high?

The European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare for this I did a little study using data from the last two seasons of Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

premier league

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Favorite 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesliga

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Favorite 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

A-series

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Favorite 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

Premier of La Liga

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Favorite 760/704/0.93/-5.6k

How to read this table? Take the example of the Premier League. In the last 2 seasons, you have played 760 games. If you had played all dogs, your total odds would have been 542 (by the way, I use European style odds, 1.35, etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a bet $100 on each dog, you would have lost $21,800.

What’s interesting is that playing favorites is a much better tactic in general, IF (!) you play every game. Only in Spain your best tactic is to play all dogs and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. It would be crazy. The question now is: can we use very simple methods to gain the advantage over dogs or favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an advantage by using sophisticated probability models and researching the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average bettor, who likes to bet for fun and game shows, and not just for profit.

How about playing only Home Dogs, Home Favorites, Away Dogs, Away Favorites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

house favorite 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

domestic dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

far fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

dogs outside 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

house favorite 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

far favorite 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favorites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favorites under 1.55 in the Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favorites overall in Premier, away favorites 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

far fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So in the Premier League, face all the home favorites and big away favourites, the Bundesleague dogs and big away favorites, the big favorites in Serie A and the dogs and big favorites away. outside Spain, and choose the highest rating possible, and you’ll be fine!

In the future, I will go through more powerful mathematical methods to find an overlay in sports betting.

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